Danville, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

360
FXUS63 KLMK 192004
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
404 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into tonight.
  Some storms could be strong over southern Kentucky with gusty
  winds and marginally severe hail.

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
  evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible,
  along with heavy rainfall and flooding.

* Well below normal temperatures are expected Thursday into the
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows clearing skies in the wake of
a weak MCV moving through central Tennessee. With the return of
sunshine across the region, temperatures have warmed into the
middle to upper 70s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.
Across southern Kentucky, temperatures were in the upper 70s.
Through the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather
is expected. Afternoon highs should top out in the 75-80 degree
range across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Across
southern Kentucky, south of the Cumberland Parkway, highs will
top out in the upper 70s to the very low 80s.

For tonight, cloud will increase by mid-late evening as high
cloud cover spreads eastward from ongoing/expected convection
over Missouri. A warm frontal boundary is forecast to lift
northeastward overnight. Combination of the warm front along
with increasing isentropic ascent will lead to a period of
elevated convection moving into the region late tonight (mainly
between 3-7 AM EDT). Model proximity soundings show about 20-25
kts of shear along with some elevated instability. Unlike last
week, we do not have the impressive elevated mixed layer with
this system. Overall, the threat of severe weather with this
activity looks to be marginal with heavy rainfall, lightning,
and perhaps some marginally severe hail would be the main
threats with this initial activity.

Moving into Tuesday, surface warm frontal boundary will
continue to lift northeast during the morning. Some additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during morning hours,
mainly just after sunrise, as convective outflows move across
the region. The extensiveness of these storms and associated
cloud cover do result in uncertainty about how much the
atmosphere will recover during the afternoon. However, there is
more confidence that airmass recovery will be much more possible
across southwest and southern KY as a mid-level dry slot pivots
into the region behind the advancing warm front and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The expected partial clearing across
southwestern and southern KY should lead to a fairly rapid
warmup with the atmosphere destabilizing in quick order. Forcing
will arrive in the region via an approaching mid-level jet
streak which well be in the left exit region as it approaches.

Model profiles show an increasing low-level jet pushing into
the region by early afternoon resulting in a favorable wind
profile for supercells. Overall, a mix of supercells and multi-
cellular convection looks likely across portions of southwestern
KY and southern KY initially. These storms will pose a threat
for all hazards including damaging winds, hail, and
isolated/scattered tornadoes. As the afternoon progresses,
upscale growth into one or more lines looks increasingly likely
with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes being possible. The
highest threat of severe looks to remain in areas south of the
WK/BG Parkways where there is a better chance of clearing in the
late morning. Further north from the Parkways up to near and
north of the Ohio River, there is considerable uncertainty on
whether cloud cover will hold strong and keep instability lower.
Additionally, there is uncertainty in how multiple waves of
thunderstorms may alter the overall sub-mesoscale environment
across the region. Overall, we like the current placement of the
slight and enhanced risks. If the morning convection moves out
quicker and more sufficient clearing develops, the enhanced risk
could be expanded more to the north in subsequent outlooks.

The threat of multiple waves of thunderstorms combined with
higher than normal precipitable water values suggests an
elevated flooding threat. The highest QPF swath looks to set up
along and south of the WK/BG Parkways. After coordination with
WFO JKL, well be hoisting a Flood watch from Tuesday afternoon
through early Wednesday morning. Surface cold front is forecast
to push through the region Tuesday evening and will end the
threat of severe weather from west to east by mid-late evening.
Cooler and drier air will filter into the region with lows in
the low-mid 60s.

For Wednesday, deep cyclonic flow will be in place across the
region. With colder air aloft working into the region, lapse
rates will steepen in the afternoon and some scattered rain
showers will be possible across the northeastern half of the
forecast area. These showers will diminish toward sunset with a
dry evening expected. Highs Wednesday will top out in the upper
60s to around 70. Overnight lows will be in the lower-middle
50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Upper level low is expected to hang across the northeastern US
for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will
keep the Ohio Valley within a cooler northwest flow. A few
perturbations look to move through on Thursday which may bring a
few showers to the northeastern sections of the forecast area.
Drier weather looks likely for Friday and into Saturday. Highs
Thursday look to warm into the middle 60s with overnight lows in
the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs on Friday will be similar
with readings in the middle 60s. Lows Friday night will drop
into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. A continued moderation of
temperatures is expected for Saturday with highs in the 65-70
degree range. Lows Saturday night will be in the low-mid 50s.

By Sunday and into Monday, upper level ridging will start to
build into the region as the upper level low over the
northeastern US pushes off to the northeast. Unsettled weather
is likely to develop from the southern high Plains southeastward
into the Mid-South. Scattered showers and storms may move back
into the region by late Sunday, but more likely Monday. For now,
chance PoPs from the blend look good here. Highs Sunday look to
warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s, with highs on Monday
around 70.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Impacts:

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, best chance
  near BWG
- Numerous showers after 03z, thunderstorms possible as well
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue on Tuesday,
  strong to possibly severe storms possible after 18z

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the day
today.

A warm front is lifting northward through Tennessee and
western Kentucky, and is expected to stall over central
Kentucky tonight. Skies have cleared out somewhat since this
morning, but a few showers and storms could redevelop as the
front lifts northward.

Numerous showers are expected overnight as a low pressure
system strengthens to our west. Showers and storms will be more
concentrated along and north of the frontal boundary,
especially overnight into the morning. During the afternoon,
however, showers and storms expand in coverage south of the
front. Some of these storms may be strong to severe during the
afternoon hours.

MVFR conditions, or lower, are possible during heavier showers
and storms. Thunder timing is tricky as shower/storm activity
will be on-off through a good portion of the day.

Surface winds will primarily be out of the east or east-
southeast north of the warm front. A period of southerly winds
is possible later in the day as the front lifts north. Speeds
generally look to be less than 10 knots before sunrise,
increasing to 10-15kt during the day Tuesday.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for KYZ046>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...NWS